Like father, like son: How the Trudeaus left the Liberals in shambles

Pat Murphy

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Beyond the obvious biological relationship of father and son, you can find commonalities between Pierre and Justin Trudeau. They were both charismatic to the point of engendering excitement that could be characterized as cult-like. They were both able to parlay that personal quality into multiple terms as prime minister. And eventually, they both lingered too long, leaving their party vulnerable to their political opponents.

Although sex appeal was undoubtedly a component of both men’s success, it manifested itself differently. Rather than being conventionally handsome, Pierre had an offbeat, cerebral quality evocative of a certain kind of French film star. Justin, in contrast, is classically good-looking. You might call him eye candy.

Arrogance also came with both packages.

For those who cared to look, Pierre’s arrogance was there from the beginning. The fact that he didn’t suffer fools gladly was initially perceived as an asset but came to be less so as people realized how broadly he defined fools. And Justin’s apparently cheerful disposition and avocation for “sunny ways” provided camouflage for a while until, as it invariably does, the mask slipped.

Politically, Pierre was easily the more formidable of the two.

Like father, like son: How the Trudeaus left the Liberals in shambles

Like father, like son: How the Trudeaus left the Liberals in shambles.

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He fought five elections and won four of them, three with majorities. And he always won the popular vote, even in his single defeat. Justin fought and won three, but only the first with a majority. And in his two minorities, he lost the popular vote to the Conservatives.

It’s also instructive to look at comparative vote shares.

Pierre’s tallies ran from a high of 45.4 per cent in 1968 to a low of 38.4 per cent in 1972. And four of his five were north of 40 per cent. Justin, in contrast, has never hit the 40 per cent mark, his best being 39.5 per cent in 2015 followed by two in the low 30s.

There is, however, a caveat. While it doesn’t change the comparative bottom line, it’s still worth noting.

Pierre was far more dependent on the traditional Liberal fortress of Quebec. Without it, his political career would have been very different. While he’d still have scored a modest majority at the height of 1968’s Trudeaumania, he’d never have won another national election. His political reliance on Quebec was that profound.

But thanks to a pattern shift beginning in the Jean Chretien era, Justin didn’t have the same dependence. Absent Quebec, the combination of first-past-the-post and a geographically efficient vote distribution would still have delivered the Liberals more seats than anyone else in both 2019 and 2021.

Pierre was also a much more consequential prime minister.

After Joe Clark’s new government unexpectedly fell in December 1979, one of the reasons Pierre did a U-turn on his previously announced retirement related to the impending Quebec independence referendum. Unlike Clark, he was immensely popular in Quebec – an approval rating of 87 per cent versus Clark’s 20 per cent – and was thus far more likely to be an effective prime ministerial advocate against a pro-separatist vote. And indeed, that’s precisely what happened.

Then there was his patriation of the Constitution and the concomitant introduction of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms. For better or worse, the latter had the effect of materially expanding judicial power at the expense of previously understood law and ongoing legislative authority.

Whatever one may think of Justin, nothing he did has had anything resembling the same influence.

What both men have in common, though, is leaving their party in a parlous state. And in Pierre’s case, it’s fair to say that he left it in direr straits than he found it. Despite being Canada’s “natural governing party,” it took the Liberals nine years to return to power following his 1984 departure.

Father and son both lingered too long. The ideal time for Pierre to go would have been after his constitutional project was completed in 1982. For Justin, the disappointing 2021 election result should have been the signal. With the worst of the pandemic in the rear-view mirror, he could have declared mission accomplished and taken his leave.

But surrendering power is never easy and neither wanted to go. Even when they eventually made their respective departure decisions, they did so reluctantly.

A final word on the Liberals.

Insofar as ideological categories are meaningful, Canada’s fundamental disposition is still centre-left. So, while the Liberals may be in for a spell out of office, speculation about their impending obsolescence is fanciful.

Troy Media columnist Pat Murphy casts a history buff’s eye at the goings-on in our world. Never cynical – well, perhaps a little bit.

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