Canada’s agri-food sector faces critical challenges amid economic and policy shifts
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Every year, I compile a list of the most impactful food stories to highlight the trends, challenges, and opportunities shaping Canada’s agri-food sector. From policy changes and economic pressures to technological advancements and consumer-driven shifts, these stories reflect the complexities of our food system and its broader societal implications.
This year was no exception, offering a mix of triumphs and setbacks that defined the year for farmers, consumers, and businesses alike. As always, this list aims to provide a balanced perspective on the events that mattered most in the agri-food world, helping us understand where we’ve been and where we’re headed.
- The Loblaw boycott that wasn’t
I was uncertain about including this story on the list since it never truly materialized. Despite significant online momentum, particularly on Reddit, the boycott, which initially targeted Canadian grocers like Loblaw, Sobeys, and Metro while excluding American giants such as Walmart and Costco, failed to gain traction. Initially declared as a one-month protest starting May 1, it was later extended indefinitely. However, the boycott’s impact was negligible, as reflected in Loblaw’s shares soaring to $195 – a remarkable 27 per cent increase since the campaign’s launch.
While the financial outcome left Loblaw unscathed, the campaign sparked meaningful discussions around “greedflation,” corporate ethics, and the public image of Canada’s major grocers. The controversy exposed a critical gap in consumer confidence and intensified calls for greater transparency in pricing and competition practices. Addressing these issues will be essential for rebuilding trust and fostering a more equitable and competitive grocery landscape in the future.
- Capital gains tax changes impacting farmers
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The June 25 increase in the capital gains inclusion rate for profits exceeding $250,000 has alarmed the agricultural sector. Farmers, often asset-rich but cash-poor, face a 30 per cent tax hike on average, according to the Grain Growers of Canada. With Canada already losing 700 to 1,000 farms annually, these changes exacerbate generational succession challenges and accelerate industry consolidation. Although the lifetime capital gains exemption has increased to $1.25 million, the higher tax rate disproportionately affects family-owned farms, posing a threat to the future of Canadian agriculture.
- Endorsement of Grocer Code of Conduct by the “Big Five”
The endorsement of the Grocer Code of Conduct by Canada’s largest grocers marked a milestone in addressing power imbalances between retailers and suppliers. The code is expected to enhance transparency and stabilize the food supply chain by fostering fairer negotiations and reducing price volatility. However, questions remain about enforcement, and grocers must demonstrate their commitment to rebuilding consumer trust through fair practices.
- The rise of GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic
The rise of GLP-1 drugs, such as Ozempic, marks a transformative moment in the pharmaceutical and health sectors, potentially impacting millions worldwide. Initially developed for managing Type 2 diabetes, these drugs have gained widespread recognition for their effectiveness in promoting weight loss by suppressing appetite and slowing digestion. With global obesity rates continuing to rise, medications like Ozempic are being touted as game-changers, with experts predicting widespread adoption in the coming years.
A pivotal moment in this shift occurred in February when Oprah Winfrey stepped down from the board of Weight Watchers, signalling a potential decline in traditional weight-loss programs as pharmaceutical solutions gain traction. While these drugs offer significant benefits, including improved metabolic health and reduced risks of obesity-related diseases, they also raise critical concerns. Affordability, long-term safety, and equitable access remain pressing issues. Additionally, the growing demand prompts questions about their impact on healthcare systems and evolving societal attitudes toward weight loss and wellness.
- The GST holiday and taxes on food debate
Ottawa’s temporary GST/HST holiday on food and restaurant items sparked significant debate. While consumers will see minimal savings – roughly $5 at grocery stores – restaurants benefit more, with families saving $60 to $90. However, the logistical burden on retailers, regional disparities in tax rates and the possibility of opportunity pricing drew criticism. A permanent removal of GST on food would have been a more effective solution, fostering affordability without the instability of short-term policies.
- Record food recalls and safety alerts
Food recalls reached their fourth-highest level in 2024, driven by high-profile incidents involving cucumbers, bakery products, and plant-based beverages like Silk and Great Value brands. Tragically, these recalls were linked to three fatalities, emphasizing the importance of robust safety measures. This story sheds light on the ongoing challenges of managing food safety in complex supply chains, calling for stronger oversight and transparency in the agri-food industry.
- Railway, grain, and port labour disruptions
Labour disputes in Canada’s logistics sector disrupted its food supply chain in 2024, damaging its international reputation. With railways, ports, and other infrastructure under constant strain, these disruptions highlighted the critical importance of safeguarding the backbone of the Canadian economy. While protecting workers’ rights is vital, striking a balance to ensure uninterrupted supply chains is equally necessary. The year underscored the need for proactive labour policies to avoid holding the economy – and the food system – hostage.
- Potential tariffs with the return of Donald Trump
The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency reignited fears of economic disruption, particularly in Canada’s agri-food sector, which sends 60 per cent of its agri-food exports and $40 billion worth south of the border. Proposed tariffs of up to 25 per cent would have devastated Canadian producers, already grappling with slim margins and the carbon tax. Ottawa faced mounting pressure to develop a long-term strategy to mitigate these risks and strengthen the agri-food sector’s competitiveness in an increasingly protectionist global landscape.
- Carbon tax debate on food prices
Carbon pricing remains a divisive issue in 2024, with peer-reviewed studies confirming that the policy increases production and transport costs, ultimately eroding the competitiveness of Canadian food systems. While grocers often mitigate impacts by importing cheaper goods, this approach masks the structural weaknesses created by rising operational costs. As such, studies looking at the impact of carbon pricing on food prices are generally flawed. Critics argue that many studies dismissing the tax’s effect on food prices are influenced by funding from Environment and Climate Change Canada, raising questions of bias. Policymakers must look beyond retail price fluctuations to understand the long-term implications of carbon pricing on Canada’s agri-food sector and food security.
- Record number of visits to food banks
In 2024, the HungerCount report revealed a record-breaking number of visits to food banks, alongside Canada’s food insecurity rate reaching an unprecedented 22.9 per cent. These figures highlight a growing affordability crisis driven by soaring food prices, stagnant wages, and broader inflationary pressures. While some have pointed fingers at immigration, such narratives overlook the complex economic dynamics at play and the humanity at the heart of this issue. Food banks, stretched beyond capacity, are emblematic of a broader social crisis. This story underscores the urgent need for robust social safety nets and policies prioritizing affordability and inclusivity.
Honourable mentions
Upcoming approval of cloned meat in Canada
Health Canada’s consideration of cloned meat approval has sparked heated debate. Advocates point to potential benefits like enhanced livestock genetics and improved food security, while critics highlight concerns about transparency, ethical implications, and biodiversity. Without mandatory labelling, consumers are left in the dark about what’s on their plates, intensifying the call for stricter regulations and open communication.
Approval of methane-reducing feed for cattle and dairy
Bovaer, a feed additive approved in February, has the potential to significantly reduce methane emissions from cattle, offering an innovative solution for sustainable farming. However, its adoption remains limited, with no clear government communication or labelling guidelines. The lack of transparency echoes past controversies like Buttergate, leaving consumers uninformed about its broader implications.
Bill C-282 to protect supply management during trade deals
The advancement of Bill C-282, aimed at protecting supply management in future trade agreements, stands as one of the year’s most significant food policy developments. The bill seeks to safeguard Canada’s dairy, poultry, and egg sectors from trade concessions, ensuring industry stability and maintaining predictable prices for consumers. However, its progress has stalled in the Senate, casting doubt on whether it will pass before a new U.S. administration, potentially less favourable to Canada’s supply management system, takes office in January.
The Bloc Québécois has amplified the political stakes by making its support for the Trudeau government contingent on protecting supply management, highlighting the bill’s vital importance to Quebec’s agricultural sector. Critics argue that the legislation could restrict Canada’s flexibility in broader trade negotiations. Nevertheless, supporters view it as essential for preserving food sovereignty and protecting Canadian farmers from an increasingly unpredictable global market.
Bill C-293: Canada’s “Vegan Act”
Focused initially on pandemic preparedness, Bill C-293 has sparked controversy for promoting alternative proteins and de-risking animal protein production. Proponents argue the bill aligns with sustainability goals and food innovation, while critics fear it marginalizes traditional farming. The ongoing debate highlights the tension between progressive food policies and the preservation of Canada’s agricultural heritage.
Ottawa’s tightening of the Temporary Foreign Worker Program
Changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker Program aimed to prioritize domestic hiring but have exacerbated labour shortages in agriculture and food processing. While the policy seeks to address labour exploitation, it risks destabilizing sectors heavily reliant on foreign workers, calling for a more balanced approach to ensure workforce stability.
Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, a Canadian professor and researcher specializing in food distribution and policy, is a senior director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University and co-host of The Food Professor Podcast. He is frequently cited in the media for his insights on food prices, agricultural trends, and the global food supply chain.
Explore more on Food prices, Food safety, Food supply, Food insecurity, Supply management, Agri-food sector
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