Global demand remains a major concern
Uncertainty is ruling the energy world. “Crude producers continue to grapple with huge uncertainty about where this goes from here,” Tim Gould, the International Energy Agency (IEA) head of energy supply outlooks and investment, told the press last week. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agrees. “Uncertainties remain high going forward with the main…
Until recently, the nation has insisted it wouldn’t unilaterally cut output until others agreed to contribute. All that has changed
Saudi Arabia is back in its role as the swing crude oil producer of the world. Until recently, the nation has insisted it wouldn’t unilaterally cut output until others, including Russia, agreed to contribute. But all this changed – almost overnight. On Jan. 4, while the ministers from Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its…
Even if the vaccines remain effective against the new COVID-19 mutants, a true crude oil market rebound is still a long shot
Strong headwinds continue to disrupt crude oil markets in the new year. In 2020, COVID-19 triggered demand destruction, with some insisting that global oil demand may have already peaked. Lifestyles changed – apparently forever. Working from home became the new norm, commuting to the workplace became extinct and flying became less prevalent. All these factors…
United States President Donald Trump leaves office in three weeks. Anything could happen before then. Stakeholders are taking positions around the strategically-important Strait of Hormuz, the only sea passage for crude oil shipped from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. In 2018, some 21 million barrels per day (bpd), or almost 20 per cent…
Opposing interest groups are endeavouring to sway crude oil market sentiments. The global oil industry needs some $12.6 trillion in investments through 2045 to meet the demand, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) secretary general Mohammed Barkindo said at a videoconference. This declaration came despite the fact that earlier the month in its Monthly Oil…
And the rush to monetize crude oil assets is on
The halcyon days of crude oil are over. The reality of the transition is dawning on stakeholders. From the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia, to the major oil companies, all are beginning to recognize, appreciate and react to this changing global energy kaleidoscope. Russia was denying the reality. No more. “The peak…
It was a political decision, a compromise between the differing oil producers. Last Thursday, after extended deliberations, debate and heated arguments, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies in the extended OPEC+ finally opted to increase their crude oil output by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) from January 2021. And every month…
The rush to monetize oil and gas assets gathers momentum as major debt problems rise for many oil-producing countries
Climate change is at the top of U.S. president-elect Joe Biden’s priority list. By nominating a person of the stature of former secretary of state John Kerry as the special presidential envoy on climate change, Biden has spelled out his intentions. The message is getting loud and clear to stakeholders. Consequently, the rush to monetize…
The viability of OPEC as an effective organization is now in question
Gloom continues to cloud crude oil markets. With a COVID-19 vaccine unlikely to ride to the rescue of the global oil market for some time, the combination of weaker demand and rising oil supply provides a difficult backdrop to the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies later this month,…
With the incoming U.S. administration of Joe Biden vowing to embark on an extraordinarily ambitious international climate agenda, the world is reaching a tipping point as far as climate is concerned. The president-elect has announced the U.S. will return to the Paris climate agreement on day one in office. The incoming administration has also released…
Crude oil demand is under the cloud. Not long ago, global demand was expected to peak around 110 million barrels per day (bpd). And in 2007, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecast world demand for crude oil would reach even higher – 118 million bpd by 2030. But that was a different world.…
Much is at stake for the oil industry related to the outcome of the United States presidential election on Tuesday. What happens if President Donald Trump wins a second term? What happens if Joe Biden assumes the presidency? In his first term, Trump loosened methane rules and opened new offshore and Arctic areas to drilling.…
Oil-dependent economies are in a real quandary. Sliding markets, lowering demand and strong output capacities are set to hit the single-product, oil-rich economies of the Middle East, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a recent report. These oil-rich Persian Gulf states are now expected to see a six per cent real gross domestic product…
Global energy players and major stakeholders are out with their keenly-awaited and immensely researched outlooks
Energy outlook season is here. And it’s not rosy. Global energy players and major stakeholders are out with their keenly-awaited and immensely researched outlooks. COVID-19 has turned 2020 into an unusual year, carrying long-term ramifications for the energy world. The Paris-based International Energy Agency has termed the pandemic a disruption not seen since the “world…
This is not business as usual. With the second pandemic wave around the corner and a significant drop in global capital spending, big oil is on a job-cutting spree. Job losses in the Canadian natural resources sector hit an all-time high in the second quarter of 2020. Currently, it stands at 43,000. Pipeline giant TC…
Desperation is creeping into the crude oil industry. With crude oil prices stuck at around $40 a barrel, S&P Global Ratings has estimated that the total government budgetary deficits of the oil-producing countries of the Co-operation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf could reach $490 billion cumulatively between 2020 and 2023. At the…
The energy industry is in flux. A new face of the industry is still being carved out as new variables come into play, impacting the crude oil scenario. On Sept. 22, at its Battery Day, Tesla unveiled plans to develop an in-house “tabless” battery. This battery would improve the range and power of its electric…
The world is past the era of growing crude oil demand and it may never recover to pre-pandemic levels
The crude games continue. While crude oil markets continue to be sloppy, despite the possibility of a small bull run just before the weekend, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies in OPEC-plus are opting to keep their cards close to their chests. Avoiding any hint about their next steps, after their virtual…
The crude oil demand picture remains murky at best. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has cut its 2021 demand growth outlook to 6.5 million barrels per day (bpd), 500,000 bpd lower than projected last month. Based on patterns, the EIA now expects Chinese demand to grow by one million bpd next year rather than…
Over a fifth of Europe’s energy was generated by solar panels and wind turbines in the first half of 2020
Peak oil demand is approaching fast – and earlier than anticipated. It’s not that oil won’t be required in the years and decades to come. It will still be in demand. But the world won’t be critically, crucially and strategically dependent on oil, as it is today. This year may be the turning point for…
Despite some oil industry analysts and observers looking at the glass as half full, there still seems to be ample reasons for gloom
Forecasting crude oil markets remains a matter of perspective. Global oil demand growth is expected to taper off, journalist and analyst Julianne Geiger says, referencing the latest report from energy consultancy IHS Markit. Crude oil demand sits at 89 per cent of pre-pandemic levels, IHS Markit says. It’s expected to rise, then level off at…
The pandemic has caused some major producers to pause and defer investments in the petrochemical sector
With the crude oil landscape changing rapidly, the refining industry is faced with major adjustments. Several oil refiners have announced permanent closures in the United States and Asia, while some high-cost refineries in Europe could also be shut down over the next few years. Margins for processing crude into fuels are expected to remain depressed,…
Supported by all these bullish factors, Brent crude spot prices rose. Yet oil markets also face bearish pressures
Faced with gloom and some good news at the same time, crude oil markets continue to be in a quandary. Retrenchment and lack of capital investment could eventually lead to crude shortages, argued David Messler in a piece in Oilprice.com in June. The shortage could result in firming up of oil prices. Messler also points…
The pain is only just beginning to ripple through the U.S. industry in the form of bankruptcies and layoffs
In love and war, everything is fair. And U.S. President Donald Trump knows that well. After all, to him, the re-election bid is nothing but war. While campaigning in Midland, a region deep in the heart of the west Texas oil patch, Trump underlined: “And now we're back,” proclaiming euphorically, “and now we're just going…
The game is up: Oil and gas companies can no longer mask their financial frailty
The decline in oil demand accelerated by Covid-19 may be a sign of the future. Forty publicly-traded U.S. oil producers wrote down a collective $48 billion worth of the value of their assets in the first quarter of 2020, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported. Quoting Deloitte, Oilprice.com points out that the collapse in crude…
Despite the recent unprecedented output cuts by oil-producing countries, crude continues to trade around $40 a barrel
Global economies are in distress. In the United States, the world’s largest economy, jobless claims rose last week for the first time since March. With measures to contain the COVID-19 virus keeping drivers off the road, recent data shows gasoline demand edging even lower. In South Korea, a large crude oil consumer, the economy is…
Iran, Venezuela and Libya have virtually been forced out of production. But that hasn’t made the lives of other producers easier
An uneven playing field exists in the crude oil marketplace. Two major producers, Iran and Venezuela, face sanctions on their oil sales from the United States. Meanwhile, Libya is in the midst of civil strife. These circumstances mean a considerable volume of oil isn’t available to the markets. Yet the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries…
Opinion remains divided but, to be fair, the crude oil market is not out of woods. Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, is endeavouring to take a positive posture. Politically, he needs to stay positive. Global oil demand is likely to recover to above pre-pandemic levels, Birol said on July 6.…
The Chinese have stockpiled huge reserves of low-priced oil, giving them significant geopolitical leverage over Russia and Saudi Arabia
With the major stakeholders – Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States – emerging badly bruised from the last round of the crude oil price war, a new world order is set to emerge. The cost of the battle has been immense to all three. In April, as the battle erupted, the value of Saudi…
The long-term view is frightening. With long gestation periods, new oil and gas projects may not get online when needed
International oil and gas exploration and production are in the doldrums and won’t likely rebound any time soon. Canada has curtailed its crude output by one million barrels per day (bpd). The country’s active oil and gas rig count had fallen to an all-time low of 17 in early June, Baker Hughes reported. That was…